Professor launches next phase of national project to help safeguard Canadians during floods

Professor Paulin Coulibaly has secured a second round of federal and industry funding to continue a McMaster-based national research network focused on strengthening flood forecasting across Canada.

In 2014, Coulibaly was awarded a five-year, $5 million Strategic Research Network Grant from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada to launch the NSERC Canadian FloodNet.

Coulibaly – a professor with McMaster’s Department of Civil Engineering and the School of Earth, Environment & Society – assembled a team of leading researchers, scientists and hydrologists from provincial flood forecasting centres, hydropower companies, federal and provincial agencies and academia. They first met in a conference room at a hotel near Toronto Pearson Airport where Coulibaly pitched the idea of FloodNet – everyone was all in. “That marked the first time we’d ever been together in the same place. We recognized right away that we had a lot to discuss, share and learn from each other.”

Coulibaly launched FloodNet to fast-track the modernization and standardization of hydrologic modelling, flood forecasting, monitoring and mitigation systems across the country. “Each province, municipality and hydro-power company were using individual models and procedures and none were best-in-class,” says Coulibaly. In the U.S., all 50 states have long since used one system.

Doing the same in Canada is an urgent priority, says Coulibaly. “Climate change is increasing the frequency, intensity and unpredictability of devastating floods across our country. We need to be much better prepared.” The Government of Canada reports that flooding caused by heavy rainfall, coastal storm surges and other weather events is the country’s number one natural disaster – more common that tornadoes, earthquakes and wildfires.

To help Canada better face the reality of increasingly severe and devastating floods, the network Coulibaly assembled and led developed a suite of tools and technologies.

Those tools and technologies will now be tested, refined and adopted following NSERC’s investment of $1,395,130 in FloodNet2. The national research network has also received $844,430 from industry partners and an additional $654,000 of in-kind support from partners. With federal and industry funding secured, the network of industry, government and academic experts will now launch 10 projects over the next four years, with a focus on urban flash floods.

The risk of flash flooding in Canadian cities is growing as more frequent and intense rainstorms overwhelm storm sewers and drainage systems. Climate models project that extreme rainfall events that used to happen once every 20 years in Canada could occur every five years by the end of the century. That’s a serious problem given that 80 per cent of Canadian cities are built in whole or in part on floodplains. On July 16, 2024 – a decade after the FloodNet network held their inaugural meeting – a month’s worth of rain fell during three hours in Toronto, resulting in massive flooding and nearly $1 billion in insurable losses. Toronto Pearson Airport reported 97.8 mm of rain that morning –– from 1991 to 2020, July rainfall in Toronto averaged 74 mm.

Among the 10 research projects that make up FloodNet2 are the creation of Community of Practice to test new tools and models, modernization of the methods used to estimate probable maximum precipitation statistics needed for high-hazard structures like dams and nuclear power points, and the development of the next generation of flash flooding forecasting and early warning systems using artificial intelligence, satellite information and sensor technology.

When FloodNet2 wraps up in 2030, Coulibaly will have dedicated a decade of his career to leading the research network and working on many of its projects. FloodNet1 was a heavy lift and he expects more of the same this time around. Coulibaly says it’s worth the time and effort because of the benefits for all Canadians. “Training the future generation of Canadian hydrologists to be better equipped to face the reality of floods is the key motivation of this effort. Most of the students trained in my lab during the first phase of FloodNet have been hired by hydropower companies, provincial flood forecasting centers and Environment Canada.” Current students in Coulibaly’s lab will once again be heavily involved FloodNet2, working alongside government and industry partners.